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Mijn tweets maart 2022

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Latest on top (updated regularly):
(https://twitter.com/martinbroek)

No NATO IS NOT underfunded compared to the rest of the world


March 7

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Same information also in the well informed The Hill. Blinken says Poland sending fighter jets to Ukraine gets a 'green light' from US. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/597056-sending-polish-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-a-green-light-says

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Sinds Poetins troepen Oekraïne zijn binnengetrokken, loopt de belangstelling voor een baan als militair op. Gemiddeld ligt het aantal sollicitaties bij Defensie rond de 350 per week, nu waren het er 736.

De marine fansite tekenaar denkt het zijne van de heldhaftigheid: https://marineschepen.nl/dossiers/cartoon-703.html

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1 / 2 Though Russia has now committed about 95% of the combat power it amassed along Ukraine’s borders, the Pentagon has seen “limited changes on the ground” while the airspace remains contested, a senior U.S. defense official said Sunday evening. https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/03/06/russians-shell-ukraine-cities-as-safe-passage-again-promised-in-south

2/2 US gives ‘green light’ for NATO allies to send military planes to Ukraine, Blinken says

“In fact, we’re talking with our Polish friends right now about what we might be able to do to backfill their needs if in fact they choose to provide these fighter jets to the Ukrainians.”

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U.S. European Command is at the center of ongoing international efforts to provide Ukraine with the weapons and other security assistance that the country needs to fight Russia, a senior U.S. defense official said Friday. https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-04/european-command-ukraine-russia-invasion-supplies-weapons-5228451.htmlWat is 'other'?

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Voor wie er brood van kan bakken. Nederlandse vergunningen dual use naar Rusland januari 2021 - januari 2022. Bron: https://rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijksoverheid/documenten/rapporten/2016/10/01/overzicht-dual-use-vergunningen/cumulatief-overzicht-du-vergunningen-2004-januari-2022.csv



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Comment: Heb er niets over kunnen vinden, ook niet op de site van strana.news/СТРАНА.ua. Gezocht in het Latijns en Cyrillisch schrift op Lutsk/Луцьк. Wanneer waar, zeer ernstig. Militair logisch, maar beheersen van dat gebied zou wel erg grote stap in de Russische opmars betekenen.

Retweet @keesamok:5-3 Twee Russische bataljonsgroepen zouden gezien zijn halverwege Kowel en Luzk (noordwest prov. Wolyn) - Mogelijk om wapentransporten af te snijden [http://strana.news] https://jungewelt.de/artikel/421968.krieg-in-d05.03.2022
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Comment:"The United States has walked to the edge of direct conflict with Russia in an operation that is reminiscent of the Berlin airlift of 1948-49, but far more complex."

Retweet @ForumArmsTrade:Arming Ukraine: 17,000 Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days and a Clandestine Cybercorps https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html

March 5

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Comment: In the last year, the United States has committed more than $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, the senior defense official said.

Retweet @AlexHortonTX: Ukraine got miniguns, patrol boats, shotguns and Stingers and more in waves of security assistance, according to a declassified list, w/ @karoun https://washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/04/us-weapons-ukraine/

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Former Scottish Conservative Party media chief John McLellan lectures Scottish National Party on anti-nuclear weapons stand. https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/why-snp-should-reconsider-its-opposition-to-nuclear-weapons-john-mclellan-3597281

Instead current destabilised situation screams for (nuclear) arms control asap. https://www.icanw.org/dmitry_muratov_beatrice_fihn_ican_joint_statement

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Microsoft’s Friday decision to suspend sales in the country means that the many Russian businesses and institutions that use its software won’t be able to buy new versions, leaving them increasingly vulnerable as flaws are inevitably discovered. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/03/putin-lost-cyber-and-information-war-abroad-will-he-lose-home/362794/

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Nederlandse wapenindustrie maakt zich op voor groeimarkt. Er zij meer dan 300 Nederlandse bedrijven, met een totale omzet van zo'n €5 mrd (https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijksoverheid/documenten/rapporten/2019/10/16/bijlage-onderzoek-nederlandse-defensie-en-veiligheidsgerelateerde-industrie/bijlage-onderzoek-nederlandse-defensie-en-veiligheidsgerelateerde-industrie.pdf), stelt het FD. https://fd.nl/bedrijfsleven/1431986/nederlandse-defensie-industrie-maakt-zich-op-voor-groeimarktElders staat in die krant: het grootste wapen is de knop op de verwarming.

Thanks @PWezeman. Military exports are roughly € 1 bn over the last ten years. https://stopwapenhandel.org/bestemmingen-nederlandse-wapenexport/The security + military dual use exports seem unlikely to make € 4bn. My doubt is also why I included the research @NIDV Nulkes based his remarks on. Like you I am not convinced.

Bestemmingen Nederlandse wapenexport
15 FEBRUARI 2022
De waarde van de Nederlandse wapenexport in de periode 2011-2020 bedraagt ruim €10 miljard. De 15 belangrijkste bestemmingen zijn: https://stopwapenhandel.org/bestemmingen-nederlandse-wapenexport/

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War what is it good for? Op 3 maart openden Defensie en #wapenlobby het NIDV Steunpunt #Oekraïne. Dit is bedoeld voor vragen van Nederlandse bedrijven die klaarstaan voor leveringen van militair materieel aan Defensie of die export naar Oekraïne plannen. https://www.nidv.eu/nieuws/nidv-steunpunt-oekraine-geopend/

March 4

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Unity in the fight against Putin is necessary. But not a waiver of critical debates about the means. It is a fundamental principle of the open society that we cannot do without if we want to defend it against him.

Fragen müssen sein also on the arms deliverances: like on the fact that weapons can also contribute to further escalation or fall into the wrong hands. https://www.fr.de/meinung/kommentare/fragen-muessen-sein-91383808.html

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Saudi Arabia plans to spend over $20 billion for its military industry, with more than half of it going into R&D over the next decade. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2035756/amp

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Saudi bombings on Yemen are reported again and again but Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman makes first visit to Saudi to enhance military cooperation. To make the word a safer place? http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220304000666

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Let me do a prediction: 2022 will even be better. War what is it good for? Thales published on Thursday a 125% increase in its consolidated net profit, to 1.09 billion euros, against 483 million in 2020.

https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/air-defense/thales-realise-la-meilleure-annee-commerciale-de-son-histoire-1391165

Also: https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/air-defense/la-hausse-du-budget-de-la-defense-sinscrit-encore-dans-une-logique-de-rattrapage-1391217

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Dochters van Russische oligarchen halen hard uit naar Poetin. Het groeiende verzet illustreert dat steeds meer Russen niet op een oorlog zitten te wachten. Duizenden [rijke] Russen verlaten hun eigen land uit angst voor wat er in de toekomst gaat komen. https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/799265296/dochters-van-russische-oligarchen-halen-hard-uit-naar-poetin-grootste-en-succesvolste-leugen

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Security for all? Courtcase against Damen workers who burned gate in protest to downgrading #asbestos (Fr. amiante) pollicy of #Damen in Brest. https://www.letelegramme.fr/finistere/brest/pour-echapper-au-tribunal-les-ouvriers-de-damen-proposent-de-reconstruire-le-portail-de-la-sous-prefecture-de-brest-01-03-2022-12931211.php

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Damen Shipyards [moet beslissen] of het superjachten blijft bouwen voor Russische miljardairs. De baan van een werknemer of het belang van een zakenpartner in Rusland kan zelden zwaarder wegen dan de vrijheid en de levens van Oekraïners. Eindhovens Dagblad 4/3/22

Aanvulling: #Damen heeft Russische opdrachten. Het gaat niet om luxe jachten voor oligarchen uit de kring van president Poetin, maar om bagger- en vissersschepen en slepers. Damen gaf aan dat deze niet vallen onder de sancties, er is toch besloten 'alles te pauzeren'. https://www.pzc.nl/zeeuws-nieuws/na-wikken-en-wegen-besluit-ook-scheepsbouwer-damen-de-handel-met-rusland-stil-te-leggen~a01a7bef/

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Ukraine’s state-owned Ukroboronprom said it has repaired and restored several military hardware and weapons for use by the Army as the war with Russia rages on for the seventh day. https://ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/news/rosiyani-znishhili-an-225-mriya-vona-bude-vidnovlena-za-kosti-okupantaAre they also still exporting weapons to regions under the boots of war?

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Retweet @CNDuk:“With a new cold war or worse starting, the #peace movement is going to become both more demonised and more vital.” #StopWarInUkraine #NoNuclearWar https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/03/pacifists-british-politics-anti-war-putin-ukraine-crisis

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List of 30 most prominent destinations for US arms sales. No. 1 the democratic & peaceful Saudi Kingdom. Categories listed:

Value arms exports 2010-20:
US arms imports as share of total
Largest arms suppliers, 2016-20
Value military expenditure (% GDP)
https://247wallst.com/special-report/2022/03/03/countries-buying-the-most-weapons-from-the-us-government-4/6/

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The Netherlands Ministry of Defence (MoD) is to supply two Squire manportable 2D ground surveillance radars and five AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder weapon locating radars to Ukraine. https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-netherlands-to-supply-weapon-locating-radars-to-ukraine

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Another look on the now loudly applauded Turkish Bayraktar drones: Ethiopia's catastrophic civil war is unwinnable. Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drones have given Prime Minister Abiy, a brief battlefield boost, but drones won't hold the peace. | Opinion https://www.newsweek.com/turkeys-game-changer-bayraktar-drones-wont-secure-ethiopias-shaky-peace-opinion-1683463

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When the words "defence contracts" reach the sports pages something is wrong with how the game is sponsored (& cycling, ...). Not only in the UK, playing for the Emirates FA Cup (remember #Yemen), but where sport is to spin a better image of what is wrong. https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/sport/19965974.saudi-arabian-policy-decisions-will-dictate-newcastle-uniteds-fortunes/

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Russian ambassador said ongoing defence contracts and trade between India and Russia wouldn’t be affected by sanctions imposed as Moscow and Delhi have put in place “mechanisms” that are independent of Western financial mechanisms. How long can Dehli ... https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indian-student-s-death-in-ukraine-russian-envoy-promises-probe-101646209621671.html

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#Quad partner India’s refusal to join UN condemnation over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has infuriated its strategic partners and heightened the risk of US sanctions over its defence -relationship with Moscow. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/modi-risks-us-sanctions-over-russian-missile-defence-deal/news-story/7d3db73f5ca6c8f2477a2f942cc0baa4

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More of these please. Russian soldiers leaving their advanced weaponry behind. It is one of the routes against the war. (With some informative comments, under the post.) https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1499639791100444674

March 3

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Nederland rommelt zich de oorlog in, maar we mogen niet weten hoe. Vrijheid en militarisme gaan slecht samen.

Kabinet: eventuele wapenlevering aan Oekraïne niet meer in detail gecommuniceerd.

Maar even nog welk soort voertuigen gaat Nederland leveren?

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2022/03/03/kabinet-eventuele-wapenlevering-in-oekraine-niet-meer-gecommuniceerd-a4096656

Thanks to @D66

NEXT Overview of pledged and/or delivered weapons:
...

Lithuania: Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems and ammunition

Netherlands: secret for public

Norway: 2000 anti-tank weapons, helmets, bulletproof vests, other protection equipment

...
https://forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

Volgens de woordvoerder is het „niet gebruikelijk” om gedetailleerde informatie over wapenlevering prijs te geven, omdat dit „de tegenstander in de kaart speelt”. Maar andere landen doen dit ook. (Zie lijst van @ForumArmsTrade.) Bovendien de hele situatie is toch ongebruikelijk?

Day after the Dutch MoD #Ollongren introduced #secrecy on arms transits to the #Ukraine (argument it was uncommon to do), the UK government published a #report: Military assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9477/CBP-9477.pdfThe #Netherlands is included.

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Toespraak @WendelaVries van @CTWnl bij actie tegen #Gazprom, samen met Extinction Rebellion

De vreselijke oorlog in de #Oekraïne dwingt ons met onze neus opnieuw op onze afhankelijkheid van fossiele brandstof.

https://stopwapenhandel.org/stop-gazprom/

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Our ally in the Middle East has a different opinion. UAE stance on Ukraine war reflects ‘strong alliance’ with Russia. UAE toes fine line as it navigates increasingly strong ties with Moscow amid Western fallout over Ukraine conflict, say analysts. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/uae-stance-on-ukraine-war-reflects-strong-alliance-with-russia

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Step by step. US and NATO intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets on NATO’s eastern flank are providing tactical information to the Ukrainian Air Force as new air defense assistance arrives inside Ukraine. https://www.airforcemag.com/us-air-force-discusses-tactics-with-ukrainian-air-force-as-russian-advance-stalls/

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Risks of #Swedish arms exports to Ukraine. Sweden offered the Ukraine 5,000 Pansarskott 86. They can be used to destroy armored vehicles. But also be used in combat inside the cities, says Björn Fägersten of the Foreign Policy Institute’s European program. https://nord.news/2022/03/02/the-risks-of-swedish-arms-exports-to-ukraine/

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Why not alle MEP's voted in favour of the Unkraine motion in the EParliament. “It correctly condemns Russian aggression and calls for humanitarian support for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees. These are terms we wholeheartedly support.”

For the 'but's' see: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/03/02/meps-were-asked-to-condemn-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-13-voted-no-here-s-why

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See also: NATO Countries Pour Weapons Into Ukraine, Risking Conflict With Russia Brussels is proud to be providing military aid, but Moscow may see it as a dangerous intervention. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/world/europe/nato-weapons-ukraine-russia.html

Comment: “The European Alliance of Peace is now party to a conflict with a military and nuclear power. The Kremlin spokespersons will have noticed that these war funds come from a Brussels Peace Facility.”(MB: Indeed, they wrote that on Sputnik yesterday.)

Retweet @LuukvMiddelaar: Europe (and Germany 🇪🇺🇩🇪) after 1 week of war: political will to live in abundance, but strategic calm a scarce commodity. Column @nrc today. https://nrc.nl/nieuws/2022/03/02/het-eu-vredesverbond-is-nu-partij-in-een-conflict-a4095717

Bron Volkskrant, latere aanpassing MB

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On arms shipments:

Weapons might also fall into Russian hands and be turned the other way. https://www.ft.com/content/38c1ee58-6bc0-4d47-a5f9-3f7021fb46ef

Western arms: How are they getting there? https://www.dw.com/en/western-arms-supplies-for-ukraine-how-are-they-getting-there/a-60959864

Overview of EU arms offered [in Dutch, with pics and numbers). https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/na-jarenlang-weigeren-sturen-veel-landen-nu-toch-wapens-naar-oekraine-wie-stuurt-wat~b9b14117/

March 2

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Well worth reading. Can sanctions stop Putin? History says it will take time.[paywall]

The long reference to sanctions on apartheid S. Africa misses an important aspect of this policy. South Africans called for them and made them part of their struggle. https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7640142/can-sanctions-stop-putin-history-says-it-will-take-time/

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Oh oh irony. The gross human rights violating and well EU and US armed #Egyptian regime welcomed the expansion of the arms #embargo on #Yemen and the condemnation of attacks against civilian and commercial vessels. https://dailynewsegypt.com/2022/03/02/egypt-welcomes-un-security-council-resolution-on-houthis/

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More of these. Plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages, some Russian troops in Ukraine have surrendered en masse or sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting, a senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/world/europe/russia-troops-pentagon.html

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De Mikhail Dudin https://vesselfinder.com/vessels/MIKHAIL-DUDIN-IMO-9057329-MMSI-371950000), het Russische schip dat #uranium van #Urenco naar #Rusland vervoert, ligt sinds gisteren bij Liverpool. Het is daar om verarmd uranium v/d Urenco verrijkingsfabriek in Capenhurst te laden voor vervoer naar Rusland. https://www.laka.org/nieuws/2022/samenwerking-urenco-met-rusland-lijkt-gewoon-door-te-gaan-16405[in Dutch]

The Mikhail Dudin https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/MIKHAIL-DUDIN-IMO-9057329-MMSI-371950000), a Russian vessel carrying #uranium from #Urenco to #Russia, has docked near #Liverpool since yesterday. It is there to load depleted uranium from the Urenco enrichment plant in Capenhurst for transport to Russia.

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Niet 10 maar 17x zoveel. Westerse wapens zijn geavanceerder. Rusland is een Europese en Aziatisch land en zal toch echt ook die flank moeten verdedigen in een conflict met NAVO/VS. Russische soldaten tja, if you pay peanuts, geen gemotiveerde vechters.#MIC https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/navo-landen-geven-samen-meer-geld-aan-defensie-uit-dan-rusland-maar-zijn-daarmee-niet-per-definitie-sterker/

Ga rondneuzen in deze grafieken als je wilt beoordelen hoe machtig en sterk #Rusland is (als je meent dat het om dit land draait). https://datacommons.org/place/country/RUS?utm_medium=explore&mprop=amount&popt=EconomicActivity&cpv=activitySource%2CGrossDomesticProduction&hl=en

Een ding ja, kernwapens. Houd het hoofd een beetje koel in het belang van de veiligheid op deze aardkloot. #wapenbeheeersing

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Wie volgt. Europa vindt zichzelf rap opnieuw uit. "Daarmee komt een vreedzaam einde aan dit conflict echter niet dichterbij (...) De vrees is dat dit conflict een escalatie-dynamiek gaat krijgen waarop iedereen in het Westen de greep aan het verliezen is. https://www.trouw.nl/buitenland/de-eu-of-rusland-wie-stopt-deze-escalatie-van-twee-kanten~bdd2033e/

@Opiniestukken via @Telegraaf ’Wereld niet gebaat bij hysterie Haagse politici’ https://www.telegraaf.nl/watuzegt/464111563/wereld-niet-gebaat-bij-hysterie-haagse-politici

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Tweet reactie @derksauer:‘De bankier van Poetin’ is grootaandeelhouder van TUI. Boycot TUI zolang Mordashov zich niet uitspreekt tegen oorlog. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/mar/02/alexei-mordashov-russias-richest-man-is-now-an-eu-sanctions-target

Misschien zijn de recente woorden wel mooi, maar geen staal meer leveren aan #Rosoboronexport bedrijven zou meer betekenen. #TUI

#Mordashov, rose from humble origins as the son of mill workers, to become the chief executive of Russia’s largest steel and mining company #Severstal.

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#Hungarian PM Orban, who has close ties with Vladimir Putin, has refused to supply weapons to Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion. His pro-Putin stance might put Orban in an awkward position ahead of next month’s general election.https://www.eurasiatimes.org/en/01/03/2022/hungary-to-block-arms-supplies-to-ukraine-amid-russian-invasion/

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Article on why Israel is not transferring arms to Ukraine. There is much I do not share, but it shows the often forgotten complexity and interconnectedness of international relations.

(For more background see: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-698899).

https://forward.com/opinion/483249/israel-cant-help-ukraine-and-its-americas-fault/

***

Weapons from the west vital if Ukraine is to halt Russian advance, it is argued here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/weapons-from-the-west-vital-if-ukraine-is-to-halt-russian-advance. But more crucial is to globally isolate Putin to pressure the Russian elites and enforce a diplomatic route out of the war. For this India and China are also needed.

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Poland eyes rapid Reaper drone buy as Russia’s war on Ukraine drags on

“We want to urgently acquire these unmanned aerial vehicles, and we’re currently in talks with our American partners,” a Polish government spokesman told Defense News.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/03/01/poland-eyes-rapid-reaper-drone-buy-as-russias-war-on-ukraine-drags-on/

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Italy joins growing list of weapon donors to help Ukraine’s defense

The Italian cabinet signed off on a measure authorizing the dispatch of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, mortars and Milan, or Panzerfaust, anti-tank weapons.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/28/italy-joins-growing-list-of-weapon-donors-to-help-ukraines-defense/

March 1

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Comment: diplomacy is what's needed now—not more military force—to bring about an immediate ceasefire, end the war & to discuss broader security issues. The failed & devastating wars conducted by our own governments in the post-Cold War era show that military force won't solve this crisis

Retweet @keesamok: The military invasion launched last week by Vladimir Putin is an unprovoked, monstruous crime perpetrated against Ukraine’s citizens. It is also part of a broader and darker picture https://natowatch.org/default/2022/are-putins-days-numbered-people-power-will-be-his-undoing

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Geopolitical instability feeds S. #Korea’s growing arms industry, leaving bitter taste for some. Korea recently concluded multiple deals to export its domestically made K9 howitzer, a trend that’s likely to continue amid the outbreak of conflict in Europe. http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/1032923.html

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De Europese Unie stuurt Oekraïne wapens en munitie. Ook België stuurt extra wapens naar Oekraïne. Rusland bedreigt landen die dodelijke wapens sturen naar Oekraïne en laat weten dat een harde reactie niet zal uitblijven. https://www.hln.be/nieuws/herlees-moskou-bedreigt-landen-die-wapens-leveren-aan-oekraine-satellietbeelden-tonen-hoe-russisch-konvooi-oprukt~aa9ba417/


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